Private Law Theory

ABSTRACT
This article examines how international arbitration is adapting to an era of persistent global disruption marked by geopolitical upheaval, armed conflict, climate-related disasters, supply chain fragility, pandemics, and rapid technological change. It argues that while these overlapping ‘polycrises’ strain traditional doctrines such as force majeure, hardship, and foreseeability, they do not render arbitration obsolete; rather, they highlight its structural advantages of neutrality, flexibility, confidentiality, and cross-border enforceability under the New York Convention. The article first maps the principle categories of disruption affecting international commerce and investment, illustrating how war, sanctions, climate extremes, trade volatility, and cyber events generate both substantive contract disputes and procedural obstacles. It then explores contractual and operational responses, including modernized force majeure and hardship clauses, material adverse change provisions, supply chain diversification, product flexibility, and resilience planning. Finally, it analyzes procedural innovations within arbitration – remote and hybrid hearings, venue adjustments, digital case management, and emerging artificial intelligence (AI) tools – arguing that arbitral institutions and tribunals have demonstrated notable adaptability. In reassessing foreseeability and risk allocation in a world where crises are increasingly recurrent rather than exceptional, the article concludes that international arbitration remains a stabilizing mechanism capable of channeling disruption into structured, enforceable dispute resolution.

Wilske, Stephan and Adams, Matthew T, International Arbitration in Times of Disruption – Or: An Invitation for ‘Dancing in the Dark’ (May 25, 2026), Contemporary Asia Arbitration Journal, volume 19, no 1, pp 1-42, May 2026.